Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Bayram V. (Yürütücü), Yalçıner A. C., Yıldız B., Doğulu C.
TÜBİTAK Projesi, 2021 - 2024
"This project is about optimization of the activities that need to be carried out and the decisions to be made for a safe evacuation planning and management of Marmara Sea districts against the possible threat of a tsunami as a secondary disaster after the impending Istanbul earthquake. Optimization models and methodologies on pedestrian/vehicular/mixed evacuation planning/management for a safe vertical and horizontal evacuation of population under tsunami threat will be developed. Decisions to optimize will include vertical shelter location and capacity selection, design of new roads, bridges/overpasses, capacity enhancement of existing roads, evacuation or shelter-in-place/refuge, dynamic resource allocation to critical intersections and routing. Since it is not possible to decisively predict the exact location, time, and impact of the earthquake and whether the tsunami will be a seismic or underwater-landslide-based one, there exist uncertainty in evacuation demand, road network capacity and time-dependent risk levels. Models and solution methodologies proposed will take into consideration this uncertainty and the human behavior. The considered problems are NP-Hard problems due to their combinatorial nature. To solve these problems, two/multi stage stochastic optimization models will be developed and large scale optimization and decomposition methodologies will be employed. Project will take 36 months and will consist of 4 work packages and will be coordinated with and supported by Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. Prof. Ahmet Cevdet Yalçıner, advisor of the project and Professor in the Department of Civil Enineering at METU, will support the project on tsunami modeling, risk computation, and scenario and data generation. A major impact of the project is that it will contribute to Turkish Republic, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Disaster and Emergency Management Agency, National Earthquake Strategy and Action Plan, U.N. Sustainable Development Goals and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction."