The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Turkish Economy from the Lens of International Trade


Dinçer N. N. (Yürütücü), Tekın Koru A.

Yükseköğretim Kurumları Destekli Proje, 2020 - 2022

  • Proje Türü: Yükseköğretim Kurumları Destekli Proje
  • Başlama Tarihi: Ekim 2020
  • Bitiş Tarihi: Ekim 2022

Proje Özeti

"In this project, we propose to thoroughly analyze the impact of border closures around the globe (partial or full) as a response to COVID-19 crisis on Turkish economy. We propose a two step-approach: First, we will conduct a highly visual descriptive analysis using bilateral monthly trade data at a very granular level (6 digit HS) to gauge the immediate impact of these closures on the level of trade. Second, we will offer an investigation of the general equilibrium (GE) effects of these border closures on real GDP, inward and outward multilateral resistances that decomposes the incidence of trade costs on consumers and producers as well as on average producer prices. We will conduct a number of counterfactual experiments through nesting the structural gravity model in a GE setting to offer predictions for different scenarios using monthly micro-data."