DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS FOR EMERGING AND DEVELOPING MARKETS: AN APPLICATION ON TRANSITION COUNTRIES

Ünalmış İ.

NEO-TRANSITIONAL ECONOMICS, cilt.16, ss.279-297, 2015 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 16
  • Basım Tarihi: 2015
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1108/s1569-376720150000016012
  • Dergi Adı: NEO-TRANSITIONAL ECONOMICS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.279-297
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Fiscal policy, emerging markets, sustainability analysis, transition countries
  • TED Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

In this paper, we derive debt sustainability conditions for emerging and developing countries. Since most of these countries have foreign debt, that is, they have the so-called original sin problem, our calculations take into account both domestic and foreign debt. Our setup can be used to evaluate the short-term fiscal stance of a government. Using this setup, we analyze the post crisis fiscal adjustment in transition countries, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Our findings suggest that country performances are rather mixed and the pace of debt accumulation in some of these countries should be monitored closely.