Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
NATURAL HAZARDS, cilt.122, ss.1-33, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Changing climatic conditions have
significant consequences for precipitation extremes, especially in
water-limited regions, such as Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean. This study
evaluates historical and future extreme precipitation using twenty-three models
from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The simulations
are validated against the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with
Stations dataset (CHIRPS) and combined with bias-corrected projections produced
through Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
According to performance evaluations of models, MRI-ESM2-0 and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR
stand out as the top-performing models for capturing extreme precipitation
behavior over the island. Furthermore, the results suggest a long-term decrease
in total precipitation and in the number of moderate and heavy precipitation
days toward the end of the century under both scenarios. At the same time, 1-day
precipitation maximum generally intensify over most of the island under both scenarios,
whereas 5-day precipitation maximum increase under SSP2-4.5 but decline under
SSP5-8.5 toward the end of the century. High-percentile indices also
strengthen, which indicates a future climate where fewer but more powerful
events make up a larger share of annual precipitation. The duration-based
indices also lead to an increase in consecutive dry days and shorter wet
periods toward
the end of the century under high emission scenario, which together signal a
shift toward more prolonged dryness and more severe drought events. These
combined changes imply that Cyprus will face greater stress on its water
resources and experience greater flood risks associated with more intense
events. The results also highlight the importance of region-specific strategies
that can improve the resilience of water resources under changing climatic
conditions.