Probabilistic Evaluation of the Effects of Uncertainty in Transient Seepage Parameters

Calamak M., YANMAZ A. M., KENTEL ERDOĞAN E.

JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL AND GEOENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING, vol.143, no.9, 2017 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 143 Issue: 9
  • Publication Date: 2017
  • Doi Number: 10.1061/(asce)gt.1943-5606.0001739
  • Journal Name: JOURNAL OF GEOTECHNICAL AND GEOENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Keywords: Embankment dams, Seepage, Uncertainty principles, Monte Carlo method, Unsteady flow, Spatial variability, Uncertainty quantification, van Genuchten parameters, UNSATURATED SOILS, SLOPE STABILITY, HETEROGENEITY, FLOW
  • TED University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity and van Genuchten fitting parameters used for unsaturated flow modeling of transient seepage through embankment dams. Random variables of the parameters are generated using a number generation algorithm and are then coupled with the finite element software SEEP/W. Stochastic analyses are conducted via Monte Carlo simulation. The statistical and probabilistic properties of the seepage rate passing through different embankment dams and transient boundary conditions are assessed and the degree of uncertainty associated with the seepage is evaluated. It is found that the probabilistic properties of the seepage strongly depend upon the boundary conditions of the dam. The seepage through embankment dams is found to follow the generalized extreme value or three-parameter lognormal distributions. (C) 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.