Lottery-like preferences and the MAX effect in the cryptocurrency market

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Ozdamar M., Akdeniz L., Sensoy A.

Financial Innovation, vol.7, no.1, 2021 (SSCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 7 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1186/s40854-021-00291-9
  • Journal Name: Financial Innovation
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Keywords: Cross-sectional predictability, Cryptocurrencies, Lottery-like preference, MAX effect
  • TED University Affiliated: Yes


We investigate the significance of extreme positive returns in the cross-sectional pricing of cryptocurrencies. Through portfolio-level analyses and weekly cross-sectional regressions on all cryptocurrencies in our sample period, we provide evidence for a positive and statistically significant relationship between the maximum daily return within the previous month (MAX) and the expected returns on cryptocurrencies. In particular, the univariate portfolio analysis shows that weekly average raw and risk-adjusted return differences between portfolios of cryptocurrencies with the highest and lowest MAX deciles are 3.03% and 1.99%, respectively. The results are robust with respect to the differences in size, price, momentum, short-term reversal, liquidity, volatility, skewness, and investor sentiment.