A STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH FOR SHELTER LOCATION AND EVACUATION PLANNING

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Bayram V., Yaman H.

RAIRO-OPERATIONS RESEARCH, vol.52, no.3, pp.779-805, 2018 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 52 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Doi Number: 10.1051/ro/2017046
  • Journal Name: RAIRO-OPERATIONS RESEARCH
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.779-805
  • Keywords: Disaster management, evacuation traffic management, shelter location, constrained system optimal, two-stage stochastic programming, second order cone programming, FACILITY LOCATION, MULTIOBJECTIVE APPROACH, ROUTING PROBLEM, EMERGENCY, NETWORK, MODEL, DESIGN, RELIABILITY, FORMULATION, ALGORITHM
  • TED University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Shelter location and traffic allocation decisions are critical for an efficient evacuation plan. In this study, we propose a scenario-based two-stage stochastic evacuation planning model that optimally locates shelter sites and that assigns evacuees to nearest shelters and to shortest paths within a tolerance degree to minimize the expected total evacuation time. Our model considers the uncertainty in the evacuation demand and the disruption in the road network and shelter sites. We present a case study for a potential earthquake in Istanbul. We compare the performance of the stochastic programming solutions to solutions based on single scenarios and mean values.