Echoes of hyperinflation: The link between past exposure and formation of expectations
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, cilt.252, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 252
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107813
- Dergi Adı: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Periodicals Index Online, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, Psycinfo, Public Affairs Index, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Business Source Ultimate (EBSCO), Engineering Source (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Households, Inflation expectations, Lifetime exposure
- TED Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This paper studies how lifetime inflation exposure shapes individuals’ inflation expectations, perceptions, and financial behavior. Using a large individual-level dataset from Türkiye spanning 2014 to 2024, combined with detailed measures of past inflation experiences, we show that individuals who have lived through higher inflation consistently report higher expected and perceived inflation. They also respond more strongly to current inflation conditions. The effects are larger for less educated and lower income individuals. In additional analysis, we find that greater lifetime inflation exposure is associated with higher use of retail loans, especially fixed rate loans. These results highlight the persistent influence of past economic conditions on expectation formation and household decisions in an emerging economy with a history of volatile inflation.