A comparative analysis of exchange rate fluctuations and economic activity: The cases of Egypt and Turkey

Kandil M., Dinçer N. N.

in: Exchange Rates: Policies, Effects and Fluctuations, , Editor, pp.1-24, 2011

  • Publication Type: Book Chapter
  • Publication Date: 2011
  • Page Numbers: pp.1-24
  • Editors: , Editor
  • TED University Affiliated: No


This chapter examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output, the price level, and the real value of components of aggregate demand in Egypt and Turkey. Building on a theoretical model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components, the empirical investigation traces the effects through demand and supply channels. In Turkey, anticipated exchange rate appreciation has significant adverse effects, contracting the growth of real output and the demand for investment and exports, while raising price inflation. Random fluctuations, in Turkey, have asymmetric effects that highlight the importance of unanticipated depreciation in shrinking output growth and the growth of private consumption and investment, despite an increase in export growth. In Egypt, anticipated exchange rate appreciation decreases export growth. Given asymmetry, the net effect of unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations, in Egypt, decreases real output and consumption growth and increases export growth, on average over time. © 2011 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.