Revisiting super-cycles in commodity prices
CENTRAL BANK REVIEW, vol.16, no.4, pp.137-142, 2016 (ESCI, Scopus, TRDizin)
- Publication Type: Article / Article
- Volume: 16 Issue: 4
- Publication Date: 2016
- Doi Number: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2016.11.001
- Journal Name: CENTRAL BANK REVIEW
- Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
- Page Numbers: pp.137-142
- Keywords: Super-cycles, Commodity prices, Band-pass filters
- TED University Affiliated: No
Abstract
It is argued that business cycles have been moderating. However, there are a limited number of studies in the literature analyzing the cyclical behaviour of commodity prices in the last decades. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating the super-cycles in oil prices. In addition, interdependence between cycles in GDP and oil prices and co-movements between cycles in oil and other commodity prices are investigated. Results show that super-cycles in oil prices still exist and are not moderating. The last peak in long-term oil price was observed in 2012 and since then it has been on a downward trend. (C) 2016 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B. V.