Revisiting super-cycles in commodity prices

Erdem F. P., Ünalmış İ.

CENTRAL BANK REVIEW, cilt.16, sa.4, ss.137-142, 2016 (ESCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 16 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2016
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.cbrev.2016.11.001
  • Dergi Adı: CENTRAL BANK REVIEW
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.137-142
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Super-cycles, Commodity prices, Band-pass filters
  • TED Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

It is argued that business cycles have been moderating. However, there are a limited number of studies in the literature analyzing the cyclical behaviour of commodity prices in the last decades. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating the super-cycles in oil prices. In addition, interdependence between cycles in GDP and oil prices and co-movements between cycles in oil and other commodity prices are investigated. Results show that super-cycles in oil prices still exist and are not moderating. The last peak in long-term oil price was observed in 2012 and since then it has been on a downward trend. (C) 2016 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B. V.